Turkey’s Relations with NATO & Russia: A Foreign Policy Impasse? - TPQ
This is certainly not one-way relationship. Turkey has long benefited from its membership of NATO. NATO never hesitated to provide. Better – should NATO take a position in front of the Turkish membership, in particular after the consolidation of Turkey´s relation with Russia? At the moment, the. Ever since our NATO membership in , the North Atlantic Alliance has played a central role in Turkey's security and contributed to its integration with the.
To this, we should add the precarious relations between Turkey and the US. Turkey has always been treated as a protected member, the one that should be always supported and gratified by the others. But today, the accusation of Turkey to the US of having sheltered Fetullah Gulen, the main suspect for having conceived the failed coup, is undermining the relations between the two allies.
The post-coup Turkey-NATO relations
If the Turkish army will be renovate, and the Alliance will not give support to the Country in the way they ask for, Turkey can decide to leave NATO principally because of unsatisfactory reasons. And this is true. Yet, the contrary is true, too: At this concern, NATO should take diplomatic measures to change the situation if the member states still want to have Turkey in the Alliance.
NATO chose the low profile in relations with Turkey, but Ankara interpreted this as a lack of support 4. The temptation to leave the Alliance in case the relations with Russia will strengthen is a chance not very far from reality.
The possibility to create a Euro-Asiatic alliance is an attractive chance for Turkey, who will become part of a new Central Asia, economically and strategically autonomous, as Russia and China would it to be.
The role of Turkey in this case would be useful in order to guarantee the access to the Mediterranean Sea especially to Russia, avoiding the stops of NATO. The last objective of Russia is to destabilize the Atlantic Organization, creating a significant distance from East and from Turkey itself. And, at last, this will break definitively the relations between Turkey and the US. However, the Turkey-US relationship has been strained significantly in recent years. For its part, NATO has increased its attention to Turkey's immediate security concerns, which were clearly addressed at the Brussels Summit this year.
- Turkey’s Relations With NATO and EU
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- Turkey’s Relations with NATO & Russia: A Foreign Policy Impasse?
Consequently, Ss were not deployed on the Greek part of Cyprus but were deployed on another Mediterranean island, namely Crete, in Greece. This deal aimed to make the S system idle and, consequently, it was never integrated into the NATO defense system. For its part, NATO has increased its attention to Turkey's immediate security concerns, which were more clearly addressed at the Brussels Summit this year than they were at the Warsaw Summit. Pursuing a delicate balance in relations with the US and Russia simultaneously, therefore, is essential.
Coordination with the US in Manbij and around the Euphrates basin is a corollary to that kind of policy.
Continued cooperation with Russia in the Idlib de-escalation zone is similarly important. The visit in served to mutually reassure the two countries that they would not allow any subversive activities from their territories against one another. Growing dependence on Russian energy imports inevitably forces Turkey to diversify its energy mix through other foreign suppliers as well as use more coal and renewable energy sources.
Therefore, Turkey continues to rely on Russian supplies.
Why is Turkey’s NATO membership valuable?
Today, the Blue Stream pipeline operates at percent of its capacity. InTurkey and Russia signed a bilateral agreement to build the TurkStream pipeline project which will connect Russian gas to Turkey under the Black Sea. The second line of Turkstream will direct Russian gas to Bulgaria and from there to southern European countries.
With the TurkStream project, Turkey will become even more dependent on Russian gas exports. Russia and Turkey are also strong partners in both trade and tourism. However, in that case, Turkey was trying to comply with the EU standards when the latter closed its door to Ankara. In response, Turkey has tried to demonstrate that it could survive perfectly well without joining the EU.
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With this goal in mind, it has expanded its relationships to other Eastern theatres. What alternative does Turkey have in terms of military alliance and security?
However, this kind of project implies an inevitable Ankara rapprochement with Egypt, with whom relations are very cold because of the support given by Erdogan to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Above all, it would be impossible to imagine such a coalition without the consent — and the direct support — of the United States. Latest evolutions Finally, the latest developments in the relationship between the EU and Turkey seem to suggest that Ankara has a new relevant partner on the western side, represented by Germany.
Does it mean that the strategic axis once based on the special relationship between Turkey and the US could now be replaced by relations between Berlin and Ankara? To be clear, Turkish-German bilateral relations respond more to a contingent need of the EU, in the face of the migration emergency, than to an effective new realignment.
In the Turkish vision, the key for stability in the Middle East would be the defeat of Assad and the establishment of a friendly new government in Syria. At the same time, this objective should be reached without giving the Kurds any possibility to claim an independent state, or any sort of further autonomy.
Beyond current positions, the US too do not seem to support the creation of an independent Kurdistan. Against this background, the future balances of the region, with Russia and Iran trying to maintain their influence in Syria and the Sunni axis trying to counter-balance these efforts, are the most important issue to be resolved.
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Nevertheless, the most worrisome issue for the Turkish government is still the internal Kurdish question. Western efforts should be concentrated once again on bringing Turkey and its Kurdish community to the negotiating table.
Turkey needs reassurances that Kurdish claims will not be backed by its western allies.